Mark Twain’s observation that "Figures don't lie, but liars figure" is an important thought to keep in mind when looking at government statistics, opinion polls, and so many of the surveys and studies that are presented daily to the American public. Indeed, many in government and in business and advocacy groups have learned that the way information is calculated, the phrasing of a question in a poll, or the methods used to structure a so called “scientific survey” can dramatically influence the results.
One area where reported statistics frequently misrepresent reality is in the host of ways school districts and states calculate graduation rates. It does little good to compare one district with another, or one state with other states, because they may all use different ways to calculate the percentage of students who actually graduate.
Thirty-three states use the “Leaver Rate” which divides the number of students who received standard high school diplomas by the combined number of students who dropped out, who graduated with a standard diploma, and who graduated with other completion credentials.
Only ten states do what many people of common sense would do, which is to compare the number who enter the ninth grade with the number of those who graduate with a diploma four years later.
The other states use an array of meaningless calculations, such as basing published graduation rates on the percentage of high school seniors, counted in the fall of their senior year, who graduate in the spring. Of course, this method conveniently ignores the fact that many high school students drop out during their sophomore and junior years.
Perhaps most leading and dangerous to our democracy are the flood of polls, all purporting to “scientifically measure” what Americans think. Thirteen different polls currently measuring support for the two major Presidential candidates show one candidate leading by nine different percentages, ranging from a lead of 2% to 14%.
Whatever the latest news-making survey, poll, report, or study might show, it’s always a good idea to look behind the curtain to determine who is sponsoring the project, to consider what their motives might be, and how they may be attempting to influence public opinion. It’s my “unscientific opinion” that nine times out of ten, somebody has an agenda!
One area where reported statistics frequently misrepresent reality is in the host of ways school districts and states calculate graduation rates. It does little good to compare one district with another, or one state with other states, because they may all use different ways to calculate the percentage of students who actually graduate.
Thirty-three states use the “Leaver Rate” which divides the number of students who received standard high school diplomas by the combined number of students who dropped out, who graduated with a standard diploma, and who graduated with other completion credentials.
Only ten states do what many people of common sense would do, which is to compare the number who enter the ninth grade with the number of those who graduate with a diploma four years later.
The other states use an array of meaningless calculations, such as basing published graduation rates on the percentage of high school seniors, counted in the fall of their senior year, who graduate in the spring. Of course, this method conveniently ignores the fact that many high school students drop out during their sophomore and junior years.
Perhaps most leading and dangerous to our democracy are the flood of polls, all purporting to “scientifically measure” what Americans think. Thirteen different polls currently measuring support for the two major Presidential candidates show one candidate leading by nine different percentages, ranging from a lead of 2% to 14%.
Whatever the latest news-making survey, poll, report, or study might show, it’s always a good idea to look behind the curtain to determine who is sponsoring the project, to consider what their motives might be, and how they may be attempting to influence public opinion. It’s my “unscientific opinion” that nine times out of ten, somebody has an agenda!
4 comments:
I enjoy your blog very much. Please keep up the good work.
I like to believe that polls for a political race doesn't show public opinion but tries to force opinions on the public.
so whats ur point???
AS ALWAYS, THIS BLOG MAKES A GREAT POINT!
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